Essay Sample about Population in Mongolia and Estonia

Despite both having a Soviet past, Mongolia and Estonia are two countries that have taken very different paths. This report will look at population data from the two, draw comparisons between statistical changes over time and make an educated assumption as to how the future population could look.

Mongolia is a landlocked country in Asia with a population of about 3.2 million people. It borders Russia to the north and China to the south. According to the demographic transition model (DTM), Mongolia is currently in stage 3. The DTM consists of 5 stages and 3 variables over time: birth rate (births per 1000 in a year), death rate (deaths per 1000 in a year) and rate of natural increase (difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate). Mongolia is under stage 3 because of its only slightly above average birth rate of 22.6 children per 1000, low death rate of 6.4 people per 1000 and above average natural increase of 16.21 persons per 1000. Mongolia is currently experiencing an estimated population growth of 1.54% per year. Its population has nearly doubled since the 1960s due to improvements in healthcare and life expectancy. In 1960, Mongolia’s life expectancy was 48 years old; nowadays it stands at approximately 70 years. Mongolia has a dependency ratio of 54.8%. While still above the estimated world average, it has fallen drastically over the half century. In 1971, the ratio was much higher at 97.5%. The main contributor to Mongolia’s growing population is development. At the beginning of the 20th century it was considered to be one of the least developed countries in the world. Over the past few decades however, it has seen huge economic and population growth—more than tripling its gross domestic product (GDP) since 1991. You can even see an echo on its population pyramid.

Estonia is a country in northeastern Europe that borders Russia to the east and Latvia to the south. It has a population of about 1.3 million people which is rather large considering its size. On the DTM, Estonia stands at stage 4 due to its birth rate of 10.2 per 1000, death rate of 11.9 per 1000 and natural increase of -1.7. Unlike Mongolia, Estonia’s population has gone down considerably since 1980. Since Estonia is a developed nation with a low infant mortality rate, its citizens are having fewer kids. This is causing their population to shrink. It is only expected to decrease within the coming decades. As for the dependency ratio, it stands around 58.4%. This dependency ratio is higher than the world’s estimated average of 54.36%. The collapse of the USSR probably contributed to the decrease in population. It is likely that when the Soviet Union fell, Russian immigrants moved back to their homeland. Despite this there is still a minority Russian community in Estonia in the city of Narva. So despite efforts to distance itself from its Soviet past, Estonia still retains the effects of its history—albeit tiny.

Simply by looking 40 years into the past, stark differences between these countries’ modern counterparts can be drawn. In 1980, Mongolia was in stage 2 of the DTM due to its then high birth rate of 39.05 per 1000 and gradually falling death rate. Back then its population was smaller, corresponding more with Estonia’s comparatively unchanged population. In 1980, Mongolia had a dependency ratio of 93% which is very large. It can be seen that there were a lot of children in Mongolia during this time. This is because Mongolia was not overly developed, and people did not have the same access to contraceptives like we do today.

On the other hand, Estonia is still in stage 4. Its natural increase was low just like it is today.  What is interesting here however is that Estonia’s population is bigger despite being 40 years in the past. As previously said, it is most likely due to the increased freedom of movement enjoyed by the Soviet population at this time. People from across the USSR were able to live and work in Estonia without much trouble. The dependency ratio in Estonia at the time was 51.83%. Before the 21st century the dependency ratio in Estonia was rather stable. Since 2000 however, it has actually shrunk and subsequently shot up to what we know it as today. It is also worth pointing out the gender imbalance between men and women above about 40. Like most countries in the area, this can be owed to the Second World War.

Peering further back to the year 1950, things look more different for Estonia than Mongolia. At this point, Estonia is in stage 3 of the DTM. In 1950, Estonia had a birth rate of 17.16 per 1000 and a death rate of 14.25 per 1000 both of which were falling. Estonia’s natural increase then was positive, standing at 2.91 which is low. These figures point to Estonia being in late stage 3 or early stage 4 at this time. There remains a large gender imbalance for Estonia. This is still because of the Second World War but since it was only 5 years after, the effects were more prominent.

Mongolia was still in stage 2 of the DTM in 1950. Mongolia’s birth rate stood at 38.25 per 1000 and its death rate was 22.25 per 1000. That’s a high birth rate and a high but falling death rate. Its natural increase was at 16.25 which is very similar to its modern increase. These factors put it in stage 2 on the DTM. There was a slight gender imbalance in 1950. Since Mongolia was not the most active nation in the Second World War, it is most likely due to the fact that women simply tend to live longer than men.

Above is a prediction as to how Mongolia and Estonia could look in the year 2050. As expected, Mongolia’s population increases and Estonia’s declines. At this point, Mongolia will most likely be at stage 4 on the DTM and Estonia will remain at stage 4. Mongolia’s birth rate is supposed to go down ever lower over the course of many decades. The estimated dependency ratio for Mongolia is 48.5%. The estimated dependency ratio for Estonia is 75.56% which is most likely due to people having fewer children who can grow up and support the dependent population. It is like what is happening in Japan, but on a smaller scale. As for historical factors, it is anybody’s guess; of course no one can tell the future, although there are historical factors now that could yet affect their populations. Immigration to countries with more opportunities like the UK or USA might be even more popular today as it was hundreds of years ago.

In conclusion, the future looks very different for both countries. Mongolia can expect to grow and should plan to accommodate for that, whereas Estonia should expect the opposite. To remedy the potential high dependency ratio and shrinking population, Estonia needs to create more pull factors in their country or promote people to have children somehow.