Research Paper: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Security Dilemma

Russia and Ukraine have had a tumultuous relationship since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Today, the world stands in horror as Russia unjustly invades Ukraine yet again. The West predicted it, several in the East support it, and Russia continues to lie. Russia’s former security threat to Ukraine of troops and military exercises along the border of Ukraine has turned into a war and international crisis. According to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker, Russia released a set of demands in December of 2021 for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States. The demands reflected Russia’s insecurity toward the West and its desire to remain in a position of global power. The Kremlin asked NATO not to expand farther toward Russia and discontinue any military activity near Eastern Europe and parts of Asia (Sestanovich). Russia claims that its intentions to invade Ukraine stem from the Kremlin feeling threatened by Ukraine potentially joining NATO, which Russia included in the list of demands. However, the Kremlin has also claimed that its intentions in invading Ukraine are to demilitarize and de-Nazify the country despite Ukraine’s president being Jewish (Sestanovich). The United States rejected the Kremlin’s demands and informed Russia of the consequences if Ukraine were to be invaded. As tensions have increased and boundaries crossed (literally and metaphorically), one of the most significant international crises of the century continues to unfold. The current war between Ukraine and Russia is incredibly complex, but a further look into the security dilemma that has been attributed to this conflict will reveal that the perceived integration of Ukraine to the West is what has been claimed to have encouraged Russia’s aggression. Additionally, an even further look into Russia’s perceived security threat will reveal that Russia’s fear of reduced security is not valid and that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin has other reasonings behind his invasion of Ukraine.

A  general understanding of the security dilemma is necessary to understand the narrower context of the Russia and Ukraine war. According to Robert Jervis in his piece, “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” the security dilemma is when “many of the means by which a state tries to increase its security decrease the security of others.” In October of 2021, Russia began to amass troops along its border because Ukraine was becoming closer with states in NATO and the European Union. According to the article in The Premium Times Nigeria, “The Russia-Ukraine Crisis and the Security Dilemma” by Oluwaseun Tella, the Kremlin has repeatedly discouraged Ukraine’s integration with the West stating that it would threaten the security of Russia. If Ukraine were to join NATO or the European Union, they would be guaranteed certain levels of protection by member states. However, Ukraine’s integration into these groups would only threaten Russia if Russia were planning on invading Ukraine. 

When one state gains security, states around it inevitably feel threatened (Jervis, 249). Over the past several months, Ukraine has gained a form of security through relationships with other states, while Russia has remained an outcast. Ukraine’s strengthened relations have given way to potential security alliances which have intimidated Russia. This intimidation has led the Kremlin to pursue a path of unwarranted and maximum destruction. According to Jarvis, another aspect of the security dilemma is when one state is unsure whether another state’s security is increasing for policy and defense reasons or for offensive reasons. When a state is unsure of the intentions of another state, the unsure state is reasonably skeptical, which can contribute to tensions between states. Ukraine’s talks with NATO and the European Union made the Kremlin insecure, so it built up arms and ultimately invaded Ukraine, claiming that it felt threatened. However, one issue arises when discussing the security dilemma in terms of Russia and Ukraine. 

According to Jervis, whether or not the weapons or policy that a state is using to gain security has the ability to attack another state is essential when it comes to defining a security dilemma. For example, a state deciding to build a border wall increases that state’s security, but it does not reduce the security of any other state; therefore, this would not be an example of a security dilemma. In the case of Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine’s only recent actions to improve its security have come from trying to join NATO and the European Union. When looking at the clarification set forth by Jervis, it is apparent that Russia can not claim that its actions are in response to a decreased sense of security because if Ukraine were to join NATO or the European Union, Russia would not be threatened. Likewise, if Ukraine were to be admitted into NATO or the European Union prior to its war with Russia, those organizations would not act aggressively toward Russia but deter Russian aggression.

The claims and motives set forth by Russia have been incredibly inconsistent. President Vladimir Putin’s claims to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine rest on unfounded allegations that Ukraine is committing genocide against its Russian citizens. Additionally, the claims that Russia is invading Ukraine because it felt threatened by NATO expansion are inconsistent with how rational actors generally act to security threats. In order to truly understand why Russia is invading Ukraine, one should not look at what President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have said in the past couple of months. Instead, an article written by President Vladimir Putin in June of 2021 reveals Russia’s true intentions in its invasion of Ukraine. In his translated article titled, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” President Vladimir Putin began by saying that Russians and Ukrainians are one and the current division between the two states is a tragedy. Then, President Putin discusses the historical connectedness of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus and how all three states should return back to Russia from their current state of fragmentation. Today, we are seeing President Vladimir Putin’s attempt at putting the broken pieces of the Soviet Union back together. Throughout his presidency, Vladimir Putin has made several remarks that reveal his animosity towards the collapse of the Soviet Union and his desire to bring Russia back to what it once was. 

Though the security dilemma is taking much blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ultimate reason for Russia’s hostile actions has nothing to do with its security. Additionally, Russia’s aggression has nothing to do with any behavior from NATO, Ukraine, or other western nations. Russia continues to blame NATO and other western states for its invasion of Ukraine because NATO expansion is threatening to the Kremlin. However, President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric tells a different story. President Vladimir Putin has spoken of nations that were once part of the Soviet Union in ways that reveal he has not recovered from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine show that President Vladimir Putin may have has plans to rebuild a new Russian bloc. So, despite the Kremlin’s reasoning for its invasion of Ukraine, the truth can be found in years of President Vladimir Putin’s statements and actions.